Overshoot Creep

When the climate scientists describe goals such as limiting warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, which is to be accomplished by "dropping (emissions) 45% below 2010 levels by 2030", we should understand that they are building in a certain amount of what is called "overshoot". This means they know they can't actually hit the 1.5 target but will go beyond it and then hope to bring temperature back down. By normalizing this term "overshoot", they hope to reassure the public that as we approach 1.8 or 2 degrees, all is not lost, that we can flatten the curve and then bend it down through lowered emissions and sequestration. Should we though, be reassured? Given the record, I would suggest not. It is all too easy to imagine governments and capitalists normalizing the term to obfuscate and delay, after all, if we can overshoot and then return, why not overshoot by 2 or 3 or 4 degrees? Sure it dooms millions to misery and death, but that threat has never slowed capital accumulation or inspired mitigation in the past. They can die and eventually we can bring the temperature down. The important thing is that in the meantime, growth can continue apace. After all, overshoot victims will mostly be poor black and brown people in distant lands. The other thing to remember is that these predictions are based on modeling which produces multiple scenarios with varying outcomes. In this instance there are 53 scenarios and 44 of them involve a certain amount of overshoot. And they all incorporate percentages of likelihood, in other words, if we do such and such we have a 65% chance of achieving such and such outcome. A 35% chance of not. Ready to roll the dice? Reassured yet? To my way of thinking, the precautionary principle dictates that rather than overshoot we should be striving for undershoot. When climate scientist Vaclav Smil inists on setting "realistic" goals he is in essence saying we should learn to accept the fact of all this death and misery. Get real people. The ship is simply too big to turn in time. Given current power relations, that is. And it is much easier to accept the consequences of overshoot than to imagine a change in those relations. We also notice that as capitalism demonstrates its inability to slow emissions, there is geoengineering creep. More and more "serious" talk about the inevitability of aerosols being deployed. Slowly get used to it.

Aging Out

Diane Feinstein is symbolic of a system well past its prime and sliding into oblivion. Along with Old Joe Biden and the rest of the senile, sclerotic "leadership" of the world's late great superpower, these oldsters lack the basic life-animating spark to even pretend they are in control of events. Or even aware they are happening. And Liberal "Democratic" Capitalism in its death-throes is not a beast you want octogenarians taking care of. "Caressing the sharks teeth" is one thing, playing with a fatally wounded shark quite another. It should be pretty clear by now that these ancient managers are comfortable with leaving a planet on which millions of mostly poor, brown skinned people are doomed to a terrible death. Doomed thanks to the efforts of these very same managers. They will shake their bald, wrinkly heads in resigned sadness. But their plans just don't include all these surplus humans. And these ancients can rest comfortably in the knowlege that when they pass there will be magnificent state funerals and glowing eulogies praising their selfless works. It won't be easy to ignore the shit show just beyond the palace gates, but if you get the camera angle right you can avoid the stinking, bloated corpses or burning hills or flooded streets. And if you vote for the hillbilly you too can at least rest comfortably with the knowlege you fought back against "the machine", whatever that is. You resisted by following orders. You are a gallant, noble, patriot gravedigger, digging your own grave.

More Wokeness

It occurs to me the weaponized woke slur works so well because it associated with Defund the Police. Everytime I hear someone talk about the Great George Floyd Rebellion I think of all the other great activist victories of the last decade: Standing Rock, Line 3, wet'suweten, Medicare for all, PRO Act, Bernie for Pres, prison abolition, Palestinian state, the list goes on and on. No wonder the right is so scared of activists! How proud especially must be those stalwart ANTIFA folks with their spray paint and hoodies. Byrd -Hegal Reolution Introduced in Senate (06/12/1997) Declares that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol to, or other agreement regarding, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of 1992, at negotiations in Kyoto in December 1997 or thereafter which would: (1) mandate new commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the Annex 1 Parties, unless the protocol or other agreement also mandates new specific scheduled commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for Developing Country Parties within the same compliance period; or (2) result in serious harm to the U.S. economy As George Bush put it, "Our way of life is not negotiable". This is something that should be read out at Earth Day rallies

Woke Green Activists

Montana Senator Steve Daines says to make America energy independent and lower the price at the pump we need to stop listening to "woke green activists" and increase Montana coal, oil and gas production. He's not wrong.If you are more concerned about your fuel bill than you are global heating you want to see local production booming. And remember, most Montanans have massive pick-up trucks that they commute in and spend a hundred dollars a week on gas. Plus oil jobs pay well. So convincing Montanans is easy peasy. There are, however,capitalists with actual power (unlike some moron Senator) and they are getting nervous about climate impacts. They've used goofballs like Steve to defer action for decades but as the cliff aproaches, Capital hopes to shift to marketing "Green Capitalism" and useful idiots like Steve are less useful. Meanwhile, woke green activists are shopping around for induction stoves. And if these subsidies for clean electricity ever make it through the Build Back Better legislation, we can buy heat pumps.(they cost a lot, like two or three species apiece). Some are planning for collapse, so it won't be quite as chaotic. But it isn't clear if they are planning for a three or five or seven degree celsius temperature rise, because that could make a difference. The best plan is to stock up on ammunition so you can take stuff from woke green activists. Senator Steve Daines is only worried about the next election. And none of us should be surprised when far-right populists sweep into office because this is representative capitalist democracy, (no taxation without representation) and if you can fill people's gas tanks for cheap, you get their vote. This aint rocket science or climate science or any fucking antifa, critical race theory, transsexual science bullshit. Elites created the monster, now they are stuck with it

Fully Automated Luxury Communism

One of the debates in ecosocialist forums is around de-growth vs "acceleration" and what metrics to use for defining each. Acceleration might be described as using all the technology and productive capacity possible to provide "the good life". The extreme example is Fully Automated Luxury Communism (FALC) with its emancipatory claims. On the other end of the spectrum we find Deep Greens who insist all growth in production has disatrous impacts for ecosystems and so espouse radical simplicity. The most subjective aspect of this debate is how the terms "good life" and "luxury" are defined. Should we use UN Development goals, caloric intake, life expectancy? How about feelings of community belonging, harmony with nature or meaningful life? Obviously, acceleration is an easier sell to subjects formed by capitalist culture, those programmed to believe more is always better. De-growth has intonations of austerity, something the wealthy have historically imposed on the already disposessed. So we have a struggle over meaning: relinquishment and simplicity can be liberating and morally satisyfing and there is a Protestant tradition of frugality and limits (Thoreau) that can be tapped into. Of conservation. On the other hand, socialism has been associated with productivist, even Promethian ambition, unleashing the human potential to harness nature. De-growth is also associated with a sentimental nostalgia, a desire to Return to a purer state that existed in pre-capitalist, even pre-modern times. Accelerationists want to ride the wave of technological wizardry, propelling us into a glorious future. I'm always looking for a synthesis.

Build Back a little Better

With war and a new COVID strain dominating headlines the climate is put on the back burner, along with a bunch of other "progressive" initiatives the Dems sort of ran on. Sort of promised. To keep Bernie Bros engaged. But shocker, EVENTS happen and rearrange priorities. Who could have possibly guessed they would back it all down? Yes, global heating is an existential threat, yes the public wants to see action but these are perilous times and we need energy security and some economic growth and lower gas prices and you got it, no big changes in profits. Biden may be senile but he still knows all about triangulation. Remember the Green New Deal? How about the PRO Act? How about Medicare for All? All big electoral campaigns pushed by DSA, all buried in the ideological rubble of a world focused on Will Smith and Putin, critical race theory and wokeness. DSA leadership's endless faith in liberal capitalist "democracy" as a way to build power has led to infighting, paralysis and a growing malaise. It doesn't help that there is nothing out there that could be called a "climate movement." As predicted, Bernie's "political revolution" wrecked on the shoals of economic reality. AOC and Greta and COP 26 all got their moment in the sun, but the Green Capitalists have siezed the day and the agenda and private equity and venture capital are coming to the rescue. XR and Standing Rock and Line 3 and 350 can campaign or fundraise or protest or whatever. Alongside the "women's choice" groups. And the "De-fund the Police" groups. The only good news is I'm seeing lots of bumper stickers now decrying the evils of socialism. So at least we are being noticed.

Planetary Death Drive

Much commentary has been devoted to the comparison of the global vaccine roll-out and COP 26 process. It is certainly true that in both cases the wealthy North/West/Developed "Center" is taking care of its own and letting the "Periphery" suffer. Nothing new there. But I think another interesting comparison is the way citizen/workers in both spheres continue to both refuse to wear masks and refuse to take global heating seriously. This is the same disavowal wearing two different masks. In both cases the humans are so wedded to capitalist ideology that both of these threats, the pandemic and climate change, are seen as secondary to maintaining economic growth. This not just eletes protecting wealth,power and status by "manufacturing consent". The masses also prefer getting sick and roasting the planet to disrupting their "way of life" (not just comfort but the whole project of Modernity, to the degree they understand it as the forward march of progress). Of course this "preference", this misrecognition, is taking place at the level of action. It can be expressed in all sorts of superficial irrational "rationalizations" such as government conspiricy, love of liberty, cabal of evil scientists, etc..Anything but acknowleding capitalist democracy doesn't actually work and History doesn't necessarily progress. At the level of unconscious knowledge, they know perfectly well the virus and global warming are real and that their actions will lead to destruction. That knowledge has to be repressed because shattering the ideological structure would be too painful to bear, the guilt and shame and reality just too terrible. Better to disavow, to enjoy the fantasy. Part of that fantasy is The End Times as Punishment. Here, humans are fallen from grace in the gaze of the big Other and deserve annihilation. This form of justice would prove that life has some meaning, some teleological Reason. Most people will tell you humans are bad, greedy and selfish, that is their "Nature". And that outer Nature is mean and brutish. Therefor whether it is a pandemic or climate, it is just wiping the slate clean. This is the nightmare and we need only awaken to the dream. But we can only awaken through death.