Tuesday, October 17, 2023

End Game ?

In trying to get into the mind of Hamas strategists, I don't seem to get very far. As they were doing the calculations on the attack on Israel, did they have some sort of end game in mind? Did they have a vision of the aftermath? Did they in fact achieve their goals? It would be unwise to assume the actors are rational. They are, after all, religious. Could they have assumed Allahs help would allow them to achieve victory in a war against Israel? Soldiers are commonly assured that God is on their side. Might they have assumed Israel would just fold and cede control, ok, you win. You can have your state. That wasn't likely to happen so what other calculation might Hamas have made. Were they counting on the backlash to broaden sympathy for their plight? Did they, like the Jan 1 insurrectionists, believe they would inspire a mass uprising, a spontaneous revolution sweeping away the old order? Arab unity perhaps? Or were they simply interested in being martyred, going to Paradise with all its delights? I suspect they had simply reached a point where it didn't matter. They were sick of life in prison and decided to go out with a bang. As for all the marches and demonstrations calling for restraint and humanitarian aid, how can people still believe in marches? Believing a march will change anything is like believing Hamas can win a war against Israel.Totally delusional. Who knows what kind of deals Anthony Blinken is making right now. Oil. Weapons. But whatever they are, people marching are not part of the calculation.

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