Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Bumpy

Watch out for the bumps, warns the NY Times: "That the price and demand for oil have been so strong suggests that the shift to renewable energy and electric vehicles will take longer and be more bumpy than some climate activists and world leaders once hoped." Relying on markets to fix the problem, activists hoped for a smoother shift. But alas, the economics, and "politcs", are tricky. So many bumps. While not everyone agrees the Jevons Effect is real, we are seeing that despite the increase in renewable energy sources, fossil fuels continue to be produced and consumed at a record pace. Demand is the driver. All the species being exterminated are the bumps on the road. With Trump waltzing his way to the Presidency and MAGA ascendent, Capital finds itself in an awkward position. The People demand growth at all costs. This is the "great" they want America to return to. They loves their treats and are perfectly willing to let others pay the price. But Investors and Insurers have to factor in the risks. There is no solution to this contradiction. I suggest we have entered the Age of Permanent Disruption. The Time of endless Whiplash. No party or ideological faction will be able to govern given the aforementioned unsolvable contradiction. This won't stop them from trying. Power fills all voids. But physics trumps all. The geopolitics will only accelerate this devolution. MAGA isolationism and anti-China/ Russia fervor means nationalist hysteria and increased military spending versus climate cooperation and a Global Green New Deal. Seeing the Teamster leader speak at the Republican convention sends signals that Labor hopes to triangulate the Age of Disruption. Good luck with that. Capitalist "democracy" is going down hard and will drag everyone along with it.

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